Intuition and Espionage September 4, 2016
Author: Beach Combing | in : Contemporary , trackback
A nice story about intuition and intelligence work. Aldrich Ames was a CIA operative and a schmuck. Starting in 1985 through 1993, when he was finally arrested, Ames gave Russian intelligence information in exchange for bags of cash. In short, a number of assets were executed and imprisoned in the Soviet Union so Ames could pay for his wife’s wardrobe. The team to hunt the mole down included two feisty CIA women Sandra Grimes and Jeanne Vertefeuille. These subsequently wrote a book about their experience: Circle of Treason (2013). Beach is fascinated by an exercise in intuition that the two described in the hunt for the mole. The counter intelligence team that Jeanne Vertefeuille headed had narrowed the list down to a mere 160.
Because it is of course impossible to investigate 160 people without an army to do the job, it was necessary to effect some stringent prioritization. The method Jeanne developed has received a substantial amount of criticism, although no one has been able to articulate a better solution. First of all, Jeanne and Sandy did some further paring, removing from the list a few people whom they subjectively believed were unlikely to betray their country. Then they submitted the new, smaller list to a vote. Those who voted included Sandy, Jeanne, the two Jims, Paul Redmond, Jim Olson, Fran Smith, John O’ Reilly (who at the time was the CI chief in SE Division), and Wade and Mislock. We asked them to list five or six individuals who needed to have a hard look taken at them – people who made them uneasy for one reason or another. Further, they were asked to list the one they worried about most first, and to rank the others in descending order.
In this excellent video Sandy Grimes goes into some more detail, particularly in the Q&A. There was no control over how each person on the list voted. It was an intuitive, ‘gut’ exercise. Note that the video is a remarkable document. SG, at several points, almost breaks down when she describes the American spies and assets who lost their lives because of Ames’ treachery.
The list must be the stupidest counter-intelligence methods ever advanced for tracking down a spy at the heart of the nation’s security establishment. It is difficult to credit that a serious organization would allow a ‘gut list’ to direct policy. Only… Only… It worked. Intuition triumphed.
When the lists were all received, Jeanne and Sandy weighted them numerically, giving six points for every time a name was mentioned first, six points for every time a name was mentioned first, five points for every name that was mentioned second, and so on. They then added up the numbers accorded to each person and, lo and behold, Rick [Aldrich] Ames’ name led the list. He received twenty-one points. However, the compilation also showed that several individuals had received fifteen, sixteen, or seventeen points.
What had ‘tipped’ the voters? Ames had begun his career as a rather introspective and scruffy CIA agent. However, later, he had remarried and he had become self assured and, even arrogant. Then, and this was the clue that was not investigated carefully enough early on, he had become conspicuously wealthy and dressed to match. Sandra Grimes had car-pooled with Ames many years before. She had seen the transformation. Sandy Grimes, alone, put Aldrich at the top of the list.
An interesting aside is how Jeanne Vertefeuille, who organized the list, ignored the FBI votes: the counter intelligence team was joint CIA and FBI. Allowing the FBI to vote was a ‘public relations overture’! However, after concentrating for some time on the first names on the list, the CIA members voted again with their guts. Once more intuition came out on top.
All of us listed Rick as one of our candidates, and he again led the list numerically. Jeanne was beginning to see the light, because she moved him from fourth to second in priority.
Other examples of intuition and espionage: drbeachcombing At yahoo DOT com
