The World in 2030: Predictions January 2, 2016
Author: Beach Combing | in : Actualite , trackback
Perhaps the most interesting read this Christmas were the CIA’s predictions, in 2000, for 2015. Fifteen years ago a lot of very intelligent men and women sat down, chewed the geo-political cud and they still got a good deal wrong. Here in 2015 Beach thought that he would go with his gut on a series of predictions for 2030 and offer a decameron for the end of the first third of the twenty-first century.
1 China’s growth will be retarded by a crippling economic recession or collapse
2 An Islamist State will get its hands on a nuclear weapon: Iran, a Sharia Pakistan…
3 The war between the west and radical Islam will be entering its fifth decade with no sign of resolution…
4 The European Union and the Euro will survive but fewer states will use the Euro in 2030 than in 2015 (19)
5 Russia will cause military unrest in eastern Europe outside the Ukraine (possibly in the Baltic States)
6 A woman will not have become President of the United States
7 Global warming will be slower than predicted
8 Africa will still be the poorest continent, but its GDP will be far stronger relative to South America; Europe’s economy will shrink relative to North America’s.
9 The world will not have an energy crisis (though it or one or the consequences of new energy technology will be worried about)
10 Worldwide poverty levels will be lower than at present (ten percent) and perhaps even below five percent
There were so many others that could have been added: the Star Wars franchise will be grinding on (‘I am the great great granddaughter of Anakin etc’); no rockets cars; no colonies on Mars; no magic bullet for cancer; no one will have run the three minute mile; Israelis and Palestinians will still hate each other; and this blog will be defunct… The two questions Beach, ever hopelessly parochial, would be most curious about are though: (i) whether Scotland and Catalonia will still be part of their respective countries; and (ii) whether Britain will still be in the European Union. Overly strong feelings to guess for either.
If the predictions above come to pass conflict between China and the United States will be put off for perhaps a generation. The most worrying development would be a still angry Russia, urinating all over its ‘near abroad’; and a bomb in the hands of the Mahdi… Perhaps Russia, in terms of absolute deaths around the globe, is more worrying than the Islamist threat? If an intelligent western alliance can navigate these two mantraps the world will, though, be a better place in 2030 than in 2015. Don’t count on it being better in 2050 than 2030. But that’s another story and most of us will be dead by then.
Any rival lists will be posted: indeed, they are welcome. However, please include at least five points. Drbeachcombing AT yahoo DOT com Note that the winner gets a copy of Nostradamus if they or their heirs are still breathing in 2030.
23 Jan 2016
Chris S. In the year 2030:
1. Evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization. A chance transmission picked up by our radio telescopes, or something uncovered from decades old data which hadn’t been trawled yet.
2. Africa becomes an emerging economy, backed by China.
3. The USA will continue fading due to political divides over nonsense, rather than fundamental issues.
4. Agree that global warming’s spread will be slower, but renewables will increase market share over hydrocarbons contributing to the slowing.
5. Humans will reach Mars.
6. Humans will return to the moon, but they won’t be “western”.
7. The internet we know will become a horrifying caricature of today’s internet, but everyone will still be okay with it.
8. Society turns away from instant gratification culture. Etsy on a grand scale to be facile. People baking their own bread, sewing their own clothes, etc. It’s the long tail of the market writ large. It could also be from new technology like 3D printing.
9. No major war, just continued brushfire conflicts ignored by weary humans.
10. I’ll finally earn a living wage from my writing.
James H in the year 2030
1) The world at large realizes what bad guys have known for awhile, NATO is nothing more than a social club.
2) The EU will collapse or evolve into something completely unrecognizable under the weight of to much debt stemming from unchecked immigration, social spending, and Russian prodding. The economically insupportable south will leave first with Britain refusing participation.
3) The chances of a major war are great and are increasing exponentially.
a) The Middle East
b) The Pacific, China vs. fill in the blank
c) Africa
4) Higher Academia in the west will collapse from administration bloat and over politicizing. Though instruction through private institution and individual will increase in popularity.
5) Political Eco-correctness will collapse when it is found there are no caves suitable for Wi-Fi and Whole Foods will be unable to find enough Mastadons willing fall dead under shade trees of their own volition, much less process and get themselves to market.
6) I will have assumed a state of extreme low energy called dead, which not having to listen to the “reality based community” blare their perceived wisdom 24/7, I shall be grateful.
KMH for 2030
Here are a few predictions for 2016 to 2030 (not in any particular order):
1. Hillary Clinton will become the USA’s first female president.
2. The worldwide economy will fail resulting in an severe depression.
3. A comet or asteroid will strike the earth (in the ocean, not land).
4. As a result of the economic depression many governments will succumb to socialist revolution.
5. As a consequence of a great earthquake in the northeastern US, the UN headquarters will be shifted to Europe.
6. The Russia-China alliance will assume world leadership as the USA continues its downward spiral. On the side
of Russia, Europe and the Islamic states; on the side of China, India, Japan, and SE Asia. South and Central
America will be more fully integrated with the USA.
7. Global warming will continue and be blamed for much atypical weather.
8. World population will reach a high point, then begin a slow, uneven decline.
9. Geneticists will succeed in combining human and animal genes to create living manimals.
10. Israel will experience another full-scale war and just barely survive.
